- SpaceX launches mission to return stranded astronauts
- Storm Helene kills 44, threatens more 'catastrophic' flooding as cleanup begins
- SpaceX set to launch mission to return stranded astronauts
- Storm Helene kills 44, threatens more 'catastrophic' flooding
- Boeing strike grinds on as latest talks fail to reach agreement
- Iran 'news' sites, hackers target Trump ahead of US election
- US ports brace for potential dockworkers strike
- Japan's speedy, spotless Shinkansen bullet trains turn 60
- US hurricane deaths rise to 44, fears of more 'catastrophic' flooding
- Global stocks mostly rise, cheering Beijing stimulus
- Europe en route for Moon with new simulator, says astronaut Pesquet
- Fireworks forecast if comet survives risky Sun flypast
- Argentina judge orders dictionary to delete pejorative definition of 'Jewish'
- Global stocks rise on rate hopes, Beijing stimulus
- S.African woman turns 118, among the oldest in the world
- UK clears $4 bn AI partnership between Amazon, Anthropic
- Barca fans barred from Champions League away game over racist banner
- Chinese stocks extend surge, Europe higher on Beijing stimulus
- Pope says Church must 'seek forgiveness' for child sexual abuse
- China caps week of 'bazooka' stimulus for ailing economy with rate cut
- Cuts, cash, credit: China bids to jumpstart flagging economy
- France's debt weighs heavier ahead of budget debate
- Iran treads carefully, backing Hezbollah while avoiding war
- Return to sender: waste stranded at sea stirs toxic dispute
- 'Broken' news industry faces uncertain future
- On remote Greek island, migratory birds offer climate clues
- Taken from mother by nuns, victim seeks answers as pope visits Belgium
- China cuts amount banks hold in reserve to boost lending
- Hong Kong, Shanghai extend surge as China optimism boosts markets
- Vietnam president reiterates support for Cuba during official visit
- Drought reduces Amazon River in Colombia by as much as 90%: report
- Stay or go? Pacific Islanders face climate's grim choice
- Florida bracing for 'unsurvivable' Hurricane Helene
- Poverty rises to over 52 percent in Milei's Argentina
- Chloe's see-through look may not be for Kamala Harris
- Champagne houses abuzz over English sparkling wine
- Macron, Trudeau pledge to work for 'decarbonized' economies
- Hurricanes, storms, typhoons... Is September wetter than usual?
- China stimulus, tech optimism boost stock markets
- 'Unsurvivable' Hurricane Helene races towards Florida
- Macron meets Trudeau in Canada as both face political setbacks
- South Korea surges in UN innovation index
- Chloe's see-through look may not be for Kamala
- Floods threaten Niger's historic 'gateway to the desert'
- China economy hopes boost global equities
- Ubisoft shares sink after 'Assassin's Creed' delay
- German economy to shrink again in 2024: think tanks
- Hong Kong's New World Development replaces CEO Adrian Cheng
- Swiss central bank cuts rate again amid strong franc worries
- Germany's BASF to focus on 'core units' in major overhaul
Europe heading for warmer-than-average winter: forecaster
Europe faces a higher-than-usual chance of a cold blast of weather before the end of the year, but the winter overall is likely to be warmer than average, the continent's long-range weather forecaster said Thursday.
Temperatures this winter will be crucial for homeowners worried about the record cost of heating their homes, and for European policymakers seeking to avoid energy rationing due to cuts in Russian gas supplies.
"We see the winter as being warmer than usual," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service that produces seasonal forecasts for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
"Nevertheless there is a still a significant chance of a block situation, which can lead to cold temperatures and low wind over Europe," he told AFP as the service issued a monthly update to its forecasts.
A so-called block or blocking pattern in the winter can bring stable, often wind-free weather accompanied by freezing temperatures.
"This was looking more likely in November, but there now looks like a pronounced probability of a cold outbreak in December," Buontempo added.
The ECMWF produces weather modelling with data from a range of national weather services around Europe.
Its forecasts are based on indicators such as ocean and atmospheric temperatures, as well as wind speeds in the stratosphere, but do not have the accuracy of short-range reports.
The models provide the "best information possible, to give a hint, to guide our decisions", Buontempo said.
The European winter was expected to be warmer than usual because of the "La Nina" global weather phenomenon, which is related to cooling surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
"We know that in a La Nina year, the latter part of the European winter tends to favour westerly winds, so warm and wet," Buontempo said.
The agency will update its winter season forecast next month when it will have greater confidence because "all the drivers for the winter will be more active", he said.
Independent energy experts expect Europe to be able to withstand Russia's gas cuts this winter, providing temperatures stay in line with or above the long-term average.
Governments have almost filled their strategic gas reserves and consumers are being urged to reduce their consumption.
The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based energy consultancy, believes temperatures over winter around 10 percent below the average would put strain on the European gas system.
It has also said a late cold spell, when gas stocks are expected to be low, could be the "Achilles heel of European gas supply security".
Y.Ponomarenko--CPN